Friday’s U.S. pit session traded entirely inside the previous two day balance, making it a three day balance with back to back inside days, before setting another new all time high in the S&P emini in Sunday’s overnight Globex session at 2356.75. Monday’s holiday shortened electronic session traded above the three day balance, where Tuesday’s pit session gapped open higher (from Monday’s close and point of control) at 2253.00.
Tuesday’s opening 30 minute period traded higher through the newest Globex all time high, continuing the climb through C period to put in a new pit session all time high at 2365.00.
Generaly, following a gap open higher, if the lower gap is not filled and value develops higher for the session, odds are high of a late rally in the direction of the gap. D and E period bars reversed off the high, filling in some of the excess single prints from A period, but failed to fill Friday’s gap and formed a balance with a wide point of control at 2359.00. A late rally beginning in J period could only make a new all time high by a single tick, leaving a poor high with just one tick of excess.
All trends remain up, and the market is still one timeframing higher on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. For any potential meaningful change to occur the market will have to stop one timeframing higher.
Acceptance below Tuesday’s POC could see price test Tuesday’s low, which was mechanically just off Monday’s shortened electronic session’s close and point of control. Trading below 2352.75 will stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart, and target the unfilled gap at 2351.00. Acceptance back below the top of the three day balance at 2351.00 has the potential of price targeting the opposite side of the balance. Taking one reference at a time, February 17th’s spike base at 2343.00, wide point of control at 2341.50 and near matching lows at 2336.50/2337.25 are potential destination trades within the prior three day balance.
Acceptance above Tuesday’s point of control could see price attempt to repair the poor high, and if it does, will higher prices be accepted, or rejected and trade back within Tuesday’s balance?
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