With overnight inventory 100% short, the first 30 minute period in the ES traded very mechanically after price opened inside upper distribution from Friday’s record setting day.
Price traded through the single print from Friday by just three ticks before bouncing exactly from the overnight session half back level, a level used often by day and short term traders. If longer time frame money was selling the market, price would probably not reverse off such an exacting, visual reference to the tick.
Intra-bar in the opening market profile 30 minute period, price bounced and reversed off of very visual short term references – first bouncing exactly off the single print from Friday at 2434.25, then reversing exactly at the opening print at 2434.75, and bouncing again exactly off the Globex half back at 2433.50, then “rallying” to and pausing at the prior point of control before mechanically trading a few ticks higher to the overnight high and prior close at 2437.50 – all early clues as to who was in control of this low confidence, low volume trading session.
B period opened at the prior point of control and traded a point and a half higher to Friday’s late M period excess single prints, correcting the short overnight inventory. Price did not make a new record high above Friday’s all time high, although the high on Monday’s profile is a poor high, with just one tick of excess.
ES Market Profile chart 6/5/17
With Friday’s lower distribution rejected, price spent the entire trading session inside of Friday’s upper distribution, for a paltry 5 1/2 point total trading range for the day.
Monday’s lackluster session was balanced, leaving near matching prominent points of control at 2436.75/2437.00. The earlier A period low, being exactly at an obvious reference used by short term traders, probably has good odds of being revisited. Balance trading rules could apply on Tuesday, depending on where price opens:
– Look above and repair Monday’s poor high at 2439.00 and test the all time high at 2439.75, finding acceptance at higher prices and setting another record high
– Look above and repair Monday’s poor high at 2439.00 and fail, testing the prominent point of control, Monday’s close and weak, mechanical low (at the prior Globex half back level), and potentially lower prices
– Look below Monday’s weak, mechanical low at the Globex half back level and accelerate lower, finding acceptance at lower prices and repairing some of the multiple anomalies in the poorly structured profiles below.
– Look below Monday’s low and fail, returning back into Monday’s balance to test the back-to-back points of control, potentially repairing the poor high and setting a new record high
– Remain balanced
A breakout above or below Monday’s small range should probably have better odds of continuation if price first checks in with the very prominent, near back to back points of control, or “fairest price to do business”, from Monday.
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