Another narrow range, low volume, low volatility regular trading session in the ES Thursday, trading in just an 8 point range beneath the latest all time high.
Focusing on Thursday’s very wide point of control at 2501.25:
If price opens within Thursday’s range, the prominent point of control could act as early support or resistance.
Price acceptance below the POC focuses on the weak C/L period matching lows where price found support off the prior week’s high, and the poor low at 2496.50. Both levels have high odds of being revisited if price opens inside of Thursday’s range.
Acceptance above the POC targets Thursday’s high and potentially challenges the latest all time high from 9/20 at 2407.25.
Although there are only two ticks of excess at the all time high on the daily TPO Market Profile chart, it is still considered a “good high” by many Market Profile chartists. There is currently significant excess on the intermediate (weekly chart) and longer (monthly chart) time frames, which could increase the odds that the latest all time high could hold for some time. (Caveat: While the daily chart is currently balancing, the weekly and monthly charts are still trending higher).
Thursday’s profile was balanced, therefore balance trading scenarios could play out in regards to the one day balance, and also to the current four day trading range: Look above or below balance and either accelerate or fail, or remain balanced.
Acceptance below 2498.00 targets Wednesday’s low at 2494.00, acceleration/acceptance back into the lower distribution from 9/15 targets the closely grouped together prior daily lows lows, setting up a potential “firecracker effect” if potential stops are triggered below. The nearest gap below from 9/11 at 2487.00 remains unfilled, and the profile from that day was poor with multiple anomalies that could be in need of repair if volatility ever returns to the market.
There was no price acceptance below the 2498.00 prior weekly high on Thursday. Trading below that level should have high odds of at least repairing the poor low at 2496.50. Acceleration/acceptance below that level targets 2494.00 and brings the potential lower scenarios from above into focus.
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