Tag Archives: poor high

ES – 9 Point Inside Day, Leaves Prominent Point of Control, Poor High and Low

es-inside-day-Market Profilepoor-high-and-low

The ES traded in a 9 point balance on the last trading day of the month, leaving a prominent point of control at 2123.50, and both a poor high and a poor low with only one tick of excess at each end.

Balance trading rules could apply on Tuesday:

  • look either above or below Monday’s balance and accelerate
  • look above or below balance and fail – returning back into the balance, targeting the opposite end
  • remain balanced

Acceptance above Monday’s high at 2127.75 could target the October 28th poor high at 2135.25. Acceptance below Monday’s low at 2118.75 could see price test the prior weekly low at 2112.50, and potentially the October low at 2007.75.

Monday’s close at 2123.00 and prominent point of control at 2123.50 (fairest price) are within two tick of each other, a breakout from either side of Monday’s range should have better odds of continuation on Tuesday if price first tests that area.

Expect volatility this week as this is a heavy news week, including the FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday.

The ES is one timeframing lower on the monthly chart.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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ES Lower Value, Anomalies in Profile

Overnight inventory was 100% short from the previous day’s close heading into Wednesday ES pit session. A gap lower open repaired all of the anomalies from the Oct. 21st poor structure profile, including the weak B period low reference from that day where short term traders rallied off the opening price.

market-profile-anomalies

There was no immediate correction to the short overnight inventory as the opening period high traded to just two ticks below the overnight halfback level, a visual short term traders reference, and reversed five points.

After forming an inside balancing bar in B period, the ES once again followed crude’s lead and rallied in C period off the EIA petroleum status report, trading into the prior day’s trading range and through the previous close, correcting the short overnight inventory.

Market Profile split view:

value-area-lower-in-emini

But with no real acceptance above Tuesday’s wide point of control and the short covering completed, a break lower in H period below the prior low sold off to the floating half back level. The selling continued through I period with price reentering the lower distribution and first period initial balance. Crude oil also reversed from its high, the two markets were again trading in tandem.

Price bounced from a tick below the opening price in J period and one timeframed higher for the remainder of the session, but was not accepted back inside the previous day’s range.

If the market opens within this erratic range on Thursday it would probably be a good idea to let it shake out before entering a trade, as the odds could favor early chop. Wednesday’s J period low off the open print and L period late rally high at the prior low (both very visual short term references) can be considered weak and probably have good odds of being tested. Acceptance above 2136.00 could target Wednesday’s D/E period poor high at 2140.00.

The ES is trading in a wide, multi day balance. Be aware of the potential of a “firecracker effect”, if price can accelerate through Wednesday’s low there exists the possibility of stops being hit below the similar daily lows at 2124.75 and 2123.25. The unrepaired poor low also still exists from Oct. 17th at 2117.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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ES Stalled at Midpoint of Range

Price rallied off the open of Monday’s ES pit session, stalling at and later pulling back to the approximate midpoint of the prior multi day trading range and leaving a three TPO wide selling ledge at 2178.25 in L, M and N periods.

short-covering-back-into-trading-range

Value ended the day overlapping to higher, with the point of control also migrating higher intraday from an earlier 5 TPO wide at 2177.25 to 8 wide at 2179.25 by the close, but NYSE volume was very low at just 2.65 billion suggesting shorter term traders in control with no continuation of the earlier apparent short covering move.

2178.25 could be a go/no-go level. Monday’s market profile chart left a poor high at 2182.25. Any downside break should probably be looked at more cautiously if the high isn’t repaired first, monitoring one timeframing for potential continuation lower.

Accelerating through Monday’s high could target the prominent point of control (2187.75) and all time high (2191.50) from Aug. 23rd.

ES Daily Chart
multi-day-trading-range

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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