Tag Archives: Inside day

Balanced, Inside Day Following Prior Day’s Selloff and Recovery

Small range, balanced inside day in the ES on Wednesday, following the previous day’s early selloff and later short covering recovery.

balanced iside day following selloff

Wednesdays low at 2558.25 has only one tick of excess, making it a poor low. It’s also a weaker low because it was at just a single tick below the prior session’s half back level, a common short term reference, and has good odds of price returning to it.

split view profile showing mechanical buying levels
split view market profile chart 9/6/17

Trade was also very mechanical at the H/I/J bar lows near the session’s opening print, where short term traders were apparently buying as close to the the prior bar’s low as they could, setting up a potential later “firecracker effect” of the probable stops below them. The late M period pullback low was one tick above current session’s half back level, also very mechanical with high odds of price revisiting that level.

Potential trading scenarios in regards to Wednesday’s balance:

– Look above the high at 2469.00 and trade higher, targeting the poor high from Tuesday at 2471.25 and gap fill at 2473.00, with the potential to revisit the very wide POC from 9/1 at 2477.50 and the poor high at 2479.75.
– Look above the high at 2469.00 and fail, immediately return back into the inside day balance, targeting the wide point of control and poor low from Wednesday.
– Look below Wednesday’s poor low at 2458.25 and accelerate lower. Price acceptance below 2458.00 could test the excess single prints from Tuesday’s elongated profile and low at 2445.50.
– Look below/repair Wednesday’s poor low and fail, return back into balance, targeting the wide POC and possibly Wednesday’s high.
– Remain in balance. The odds would be low of remaining inside Wednesday’s small range. A potential more likely scenario would see price balance inside Tuesday’s elongated range.

Ordinarily, back to back poor highs (9/1, 9/5, not including Labor Day) would have very good odds of being repaired in the near future. However, because there is excess at the all time high, combined with the gap above Tuesday (gaps are also a form of excess), the back to back poor highs are probably less significant, lowering the odds of being repaired.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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9 point balanced inside day, excess low and poor high

9 point balanced inside day in ES
9 point balanced inside day in ES, excess low and poor high

Potential trade scenarios:

– Price looks above and repairs Wednesday’s poor high and finds acceptance back in the upper distributions from 8/22, 8/17.
– Price looks above and repairs Wednesday’s poor high and fails to find acceptance higher, returning back into Wednesday’s range.
– Trade below Wednesday’s settle at 2441.50 and accelerate/find acceptance in the combined lower excess from the excess single prints in the 8/22, 8/23 profiles, and potentially targeting the unfilled gap from 8/21 at 2429.50
– Trade below Wednesday’s settle, look below the low at 2438.75 and return back into the small, 9 point range, potentially targeting the poor high at the opposite end.
– Remain in balance, unlikely because of the narrow range.

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Balanced, Inside Day Following Latest All Time ES High

Monday’s regular hour trading session opened within the upper distribution of Friday’s rally to a new all time high. Early chop and no acceptance back below Friday’s late pullback low at 2455.00 contained price there, ending the session as a balanced, inside day.

balanced inside day following new all time high
Value areas and points of control migrating higher with price on daily profile chart

Short term, mechanical buyers were waiting to buy pullbacks off obvious references – a tick above the open print in C period, and exactly off the prior high in E, trading higher into the excess single prints at Friday’s high in D & H and lowering the odds that Friday’s excess (just three ticks) will now be lasting.

split view market  profile chart
split view market profile chart

With just a 6 1/4 point trading range, Monday’s profile was balanced, which happens often following a previous trending day. It was also an inside day. On Tuesday, potential balance trading scenarios could be in play:

– Look above Mondays high and immediately challenge the all time high at 2461.25, an upside breakout would accelerate to new all time highs, finding acceptance at higher prices
– Look above the balance and fail, returning back into Mondays range and, probably minimally, targeting the lower end of the range.
– Look below balance and accelerate. Acceptance below 2454.25 could easily test the prior all time high at 2451.50
– Look below balance and fail, returning back into Mondays range, targeting the wide point of control at 2457.25, close at 2458.50, Monday’s high and a potential new all time high.

There is only three ticks of excess now at the all time high on the daily and weekly charts, probably lowering the odds that this excess will be lasting. But if liquidation does occur, which is very possible due to the mechanical nature of the buying during the four day rally, price should find acceptance back into Friday’s lower distribution, below the prior all time high, with good odds of testing Friday’s low at 2444.25. Trading below 2444.25 would stop the daily one timeframing higher off the July 11th 2410.00 low.

More serious selling would see price test Thursday’s low at 2439.00, and potentially the top of the gap (July 12th low) at 2434.75. The bottom of the gap from July 11th at 2430.00 remains unfilled.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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