Tag Archives: Inside day

8 Point Balanced, Inside Day Just Below All Time High




Another narrow range, low volume, low volatility regular trading session in the ES Thursday, trading in just an 8 point range beneath the latest all time high.

balanced, inside day below all time high

Focusing on Thursday’s very wide point of control at 2501.25:
If price opens within Thursday’s range, the prominent point of control could act as early support or resistance.

Price acceptance below the POC focuses on the weak C/L period matching lows where price found support off the prior week’s high, and the poor low at 2496.50. Both levels have high odds of being revisited if price opens inside of Thursday’s range.

Acceptance above the POC targets Thursday’s high and potentially challenges the latest all time high from 9/20 at 2407.25.

Although there are only two ticks of excess at the all time high on the daily TPO Market Profile chart, it is still considered a “good high” by many Market Profile chartists. There is currently significant excess on the intermediate (weekly chart) and longer (monthly chart) time frames, which could increase the odds that the latest all time high could hold for some time. (Caveat: While the daily chart is currently balancing, the weekly and monthly charts are still trending higher).

Thursday’s profile was balanced, therefore balance trading scenarios could play out in regards to the one day balance, and also to the current four day trading range: Look above or below balance and either accelerate or fail, or remain balanced.

From Wednesday’s market profile report;

Acceptance below 2498.00 targets Wednesday’s low at 2494.00, acceleration/acceptance back into the lower distribution from 9/15 targets the closely grouped together prior daily lows lows, setting up a potential “firecracker effect” if potential stops are triggered below. The nearest gap below from 9/11 at 2487.00 remains unfilled, and the profile from that day was poor with multiple anomalies that could be in need of repair if volatility ever returns to the market.

There was no price acceptance below the 2498.00 prior weekly high on Thursday. Trading below that level should have high odds of at least repairing the poor low at 2496.50. Acceleration/acceptance below that level targets 2494.00 and brings the potential lower scenarios from above into focus.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Balanced, Inside Day Following Prior Day’s Selloff and Recovery

Small range, balanced inside day in the ES on Wednesday, following the previous day’s early selloff and later short covering recovery.

balanced iside day following selloff

Wednesdays low at 2558.25 has only one tick of excess, making it a poor low. It’s also a weaker low because it was at just a single tick below the prior session’s half back level, a common short term reference, and has good odds of price returning to it.

split view profile showing mechanical buying levels
split view market profile chart 9/6/17

Trade was also very mechanical at the H/I/J bar lows near the session’s opening print, where short term traders were apparently buying as close to the the prior bar’s low as they could, setting up a potential later “firecracker effect” of the probable stops below them. The late M period pullback low was one tick above current session’s half back level, also very mechanical with high odds of price revisiting that level.

Potential trading scenarios in regards to Wednesday’s balance:

– Look above the high at 2469.00 and trade higher, targeting the poor high from Tuesday at 2471.25 and gap fill at 2473.00, with the potential to revisit the very wide POC from 9/1 at 2477.50 and the poor high at 2479.75.
– Look above the high at 2469.00 and fail, immediately return back into the inside day balance, targeting the wide point of control and poor low from Wednesday.
– Look below Wednesday’s poor low at 2458.25 and accelerate lower. Price acceptance below 2458.00 could test the excess single prints from Tuesday’s elongated profile and low at 2445.50.
– Look below/repair Wednesday’s poor low and fail, return back into balance, targeting the wide POC and possibly Wednesday’s high.
– Remain in balance. The odds would be low of remaining inside Wednesday’s small range. A potential more likely scenario would see price balance inside Tuesday’s elongated range.

Ordinarily, back to back poor highs (9/1, 9/5, not including Labor Day) would have very good odds of being repaired in the near future. However, because there is excess at the all time high, combined with the gap above Tuesday (gaps are also a form of excess), the back to back poor highs are probably less significant, lowering the odds of being repaired.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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