Tag Archives: balance

Gap Higher, Balance

balance after gap opening higher
One day balance after gap opening higher

The ES is trading in an eight day balance between 2700.50 and 2741.25. If price opens within Monday’s range potential balance trading scenarios could include: look above or below Monday’s balanced range and accelerate/find acceptance at higher or lower prices, look above/below the range and fail and potentially target the opposite end, or remain balanced within Monday’s range (including slightly above and/or below ). Wednesday brings the release of the FOMC Minutes so remaining in balance would not be unusual ahead of that announcement, barring any major news events.

A break below Monday’s low could target the gap from Friday at 2719.75, although large gaps are rarely filled the day after they are created. There is also an un-visited very wide point of control from the 5/18 profile at 2714.50.

8 day balance
8 day balance

Price acceptance above Monday’s high targets the prior weekly high at 2741.25, and potentially the gap fill from 3/16 at 2752.75.

Monday’s wide point of control could act as either early support or resistance, or a price magnet, on Tuesday.

multi-day trading   range
multi-day trading
range



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Poor High, Matching Lows in Profile Chart

Poor High, Matching Lows in Profile Chart
Poor high, weak low

Neither the high or low in Thursday’s market profile chart is very good. The market is in a two day balance inside a larger six day balance.

In regards to balance, potential trade scenarios could see price either look above or below balance and either accelerate or fail, or remain in balance. If a “look above and fail” occurs the potential destination becomes the opposite side of the balance.

Split-view profile chart
Split-view profile chart



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Two distributions, probable short covering rally

Anomalies in the market profile chart are often repaired, or traded back through, soon after they are created. Wednesdays balance and Thursdays rally traded back through the multiple anomalies in the profile following the April 24th selloff. Thursday’s (4/26) market profile chart also left a poor high at 2675.50, closing just off the high of day.

short covering rally

Depending on where price opens in regards to areas of balance, potential trading scenarios could include:

– Look above or below a balance and accelerate/find acceptance

– Look above or below a balance and fail, targeting the opposite end

– Remain in balance

Prior wide “naked” (not yet revisited) points of control can act as price magnets, often drawing price back to them. There are very prominent points of control both above and below Thursday’s range.

market profile daily charts

Focusing on the two separate distributions in Thursday’s profile, price acceptance within the upper balance would probably have decent odds of repairing the poor high, and potentially re-testing the high from 4/24, and if the market remains strong price could target the upper excess single prints from the 4/20 profile.

Carrying past information forward, the high from 4/19 at 2703.50 was mechanically just a single tick shy of filling the gap from 4/18, and the very wide naked point of control from the 4/18 profile at at 2714.00 has not been revisted. The prior weekly high is at 2718.00.

split view market profile chart
Split view market profile chart 4/26/18

If price opens in or finds acceptance back inside Thursday’s lower distribution, below the pull back low at 2663.75, the lower excess single prints in the profile could be tested, followed by the small gap at Wednesday’s high at 2645.00. Acceptance back into the 4/25 range could target the 10 TPO wide naked point of control at 2629.50.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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