Excess on E-Mini S&P 500 Daily Chart (ES=F)
At the time of this posting another new all time was put in after price looked above Wednesday’s RTH high early in the extended trading hours session. To date, any previous all time high made in an after-hours trading session have always been revisited at some point during a regular trading hour session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). Although it doesn’t have to be the next day, odds suggest Wednesday’s high could be revisited at some time.
That being said, there is now significant excess below the latest all time high on the E-Mini S&P 500 (ES=F) at 4657.00. Significant excess can preclude a new higher high.
All trends are up, but if price gaps open higher on Thursday there will be four unfilled gaps in the daily chart since October 13th. This increases the odds for at least a pullback in the near term. Wednesday’s elongated Market Profile chart has three distributions, and generally, if price finds acceptance when it enters into a profile distribution, the target is the other side.
The odds probably suggest that price will try to find a place where two sided trade can take place within the prior elongated range. The first downside reference on Thursday is the lower end of the upper distribution at 4642.25. Price acceptance below that level targets the top of the middle distribution, the single print at 4632.75.
If the market retraces, the base of the upward spike at 4620.50 becomes an important short term trading reference. If price opens within the spike, the higher prices are looking for acceptance, with good odds of keeping the rally in tact (price finds a level where two sided trade can occur). If price opens below the spike base it would be considered negative, since the higher prices were rejected.
There is a prominent point of control on the Market Profile chart at 4618.00, and a poor low at 4613.00.