MONDAY JANUARY 11, 2016 S&P MARKET PROFILE RECAP

January11 2016 Market Profile Structure

The market rallied to just two ticks past the overnight high in the first period Monday, then sold off to just two ticks above Friday’s close. The third period saw price climb to exactly at the base of Friday’s late day spike, then sold off abruptly over 15 points, taking out the low.

After another short lived “rally” to just above half-back in the fifth 30 minute period, the ES continued to follow the selloff in crude oil, one time-framing down through the overnight low.

Volatility was high again on Tuesday, as price then rallied again 16+ points but could not get a foothold back into Friday’s range until the final 30 minute period when the buying ledge – 3 wide TPO’s – was taken out at 1910.25 and the shorts were squeezed.

“Cat’s away Mice will play”. With no clear evidence of longer time frame players in sight it appears the S&P emini market is still dominated by day and shorter term traders using almost exact reference points pushing it at their will. Can they drive prices low enough to trigger longer term money, or will they be squeezed more? Time will tell.

Focusing Tuesday on Monday’s wide POC at 1909 for acceptance/rejection, and also at the late afternoon rally high at 1922.75. The base of Monday’s spike also still appears to be in play. If overnight trade Monday can stay above the regular session close at 1914.25 further short squeezing might occur on Tuesday if they can’t trade below it.

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Friday Jan 8, 2016 S&P Market Profile Recap

January 8 Market Profile Structure
Opening within Thursday’s range, a lot of confusion and chop with somewhat large abrupt swings dominated the early trading session. The market sold off early from just two ticks below half back. After a poor low formed and was taken out at 1935.50 the ensuing rally failed to take out the early half back level at 1944.50, reaching only as high as 1943.50. From there the S&P sold off 33 points, one-timeframing lower to 1910.

Depending on where the market opens on Monday, Market Profile traders will be focusing on the base of Friday’s spike at 1924.50 for acceptance or rejection(1923.25 is the base of spike on collapsed profile view, but the break of the low on the expanded view is at 1924.50), does it open above, below or within the spike? The market also left a poor low at 1910.

While NYSE volume was somewhat high at 4.6 billion, was it commensurate with the market selloff? Friday’s POC did not migrate lower with price so many traders may be “short in the hole”.

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Thursday, Jan. 7 S&P Emini Recap

Concerns about China’s central bank devaluing its Yuan sent the market in a tailspin in the overnight session. Thursday’s S&P short covering rally failed just short of the previous day’s low, then sold off all the way down to the overnight session low.

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Thursday evening will probably be very volatile as China has suspended it’s 7% short circuit breaker rule, which was tripped just 20 minutes into its previous trading session and trading was halted for the second time this week. In addition US weekly jobs data will be posted Friday morning:

Trade ideas for Friday:

Depending on where the S&P opens on Friday, acceptance above Thursday’s rally high at 1946.25 could lead to a ferocious short covering rally, as the market could be dangerously short. While NYSE Volume was high at just over 5 billion shares it could mean weaker short term players are getting too short.

Alternatively, If the market trades below Thursday’s low it could keep the current down trend intact.

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