After opening a few ticks below and testing to within a tick of the previous regular session’s close, the ES sold off back through Monday’s opening and the three distributions left from Friday’s pit session profile, one timeframing lower for the first 6 periods. One timeframing stopped in G period, leaving a poor F/G low.
After balancing off the lows and forming a wide point of control at 2159.25 the market traded exactly to the single print from A period at 2161.25, filling it to the tick in J period. Late in M period price traded through the high of J, closing the single print and lower distribution.
The point of control remained at 2159.25, prominently finishing the day there at 10 TPO’s wide.
Another new all time high for the S&P 500 emini futures was made in the overnight session at 2172.50. New all time highs that are made in the extended hours session have lower odds of lasting. In addition, there is a poor high from July 22 at 2169.25, and the pit session all time high from July 20 has poor structure at four TPO’s wide.
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More opening chop Thursday morning as the ES pit session opened in between Wednesday’s upper and lower distributions, with A and B periods both bouncing from the high of the previous 4 day balance from 7/14 to 7/19 at 2164, leaving a poor low.
After rotating in a four point range for the first four periods the market accelerated lower through D period’s inside bar at the close of the European trading session, taking out the earlier A/B poor low and reentering the previous four day trading range.
The market one timeframed lower for 8 consecutive periods, with J period pausing exactly at the wide point of control from July 19 before finding its low of the day at 2153.50.
Value ended lower on the day, with a five wide POC migrating lower to 2160.60 from an earlier five wide TPO POC at 2166.25.
If the market opens inside the lower distribution on Friday, market profile day trading references are the late rally high at 2159.75 followed by the the low of the upper distribution’s single print at 2163.75. There is no excess on the pit session all time high at 2169.75. If price reenters Thursday’s upper distribution above 2164 potential targets are the opposite end of that balance at Thursday’s high, and the poor all time high.
Acceptance below the late rally high could target Thursday’s low, acceleration below that level could target the low from July 15 at 2149, followed by the very prominent naked point of control from July 13 at 2145.25.
Another moderately low volume trading session and another new S&P emini all time high, trading in under a 4 point range from the fourth period on. Price took out the previous all time high made in the after hours market on July 13 at 2168, then traded 7 ticks higher in D period, rotating in that range for the remainder of the day. Wednesday’s market profile chart left a very poor 4 TPO wide high at 2169.75.
NYSE daily volume was just under a meager 3.2 billion.
Treating Wednesday’s upper distribution as a separate balance, if price opens within that balance on Thursday possible trade scenarios are for price looking above or below balance and accelerating higher/lower, or looking above or below either end and failing. Returning back into the small balance initially targets the opposite end.
If there is acceptance back below the lower end of the upper distribution at 2166.25 and single print at 2165.50, price could reenter the previous 4 day balance, targeting Wednesday’s low and bringing the very prominent point of control from July 19 at 2155.75 into play, and potentially the lower end of that 4 day balance.
If price opens within range and accelerates through the poor high it will be yet another new all time high on the S&P 500 emini futures contract. If price does not return back into the previous day’s range and continues climbing higher, monitor one timeframing for continuation.