All posts by ES Traders

TUESDAY JANUARY 12, 2016 S&P MARKET PROFILE RECAP

Yet another emotionally driven selloff in the ES Tuesday, with the S&P emini chart almost mirroring the crude futures. After a gap up opening, closing the gap, then climbing up to and through its overnight high by 3 points, the ES then again followed crude’s lead lower and plummeting down app. 35 points from the high. But as soon as the crude oil pit session closed the ES miraculously staged a 28 point short covering rally, and finally closed the session higher on the day at 1924.75. A reference for Wednesday is the rally high at 1934.75.

crude oil ES emini Market Profile Chart January 12 2016

The ES has stopped one time-framing down on the daily chart since the second trading day of the year. Is it just so inventory can rebalance and continue the intermediate downward trend, or is a reversal coming?

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MONDAY JANUARY 11, 2016 S&P MARKET PROFILE RECAP

January11 2016 Market Profile Structure

The market rallied to just two ticks past the overnight high in the first period Monday, then sold off to just two ticks above Friday’s close. The third period saw price climb to exactly at the base of Friday’s late day spike, then sold off abruptly over 15 points, taking out the low.

After another short lived “rally” to just above half-back in the fifth 30 minute period, the ES continued to follow the selloff in crude oil, one time-framing down through the overnight low.

Volatility was high again on Tuesday, as price then rallied again 16+ points but could not get a foothold back into Friday’s range until the final 30 minute period when the buying ledge – 3 wide TPO’s – was taken out at 1910.25 and the shorts were squeezed.

“Cat’s away Mice will play”. With no clear evidence of longer time frame players in sight it appears the S&P emini market is still dominated by day and shorter term traders using almost exact reference points pushing it at their will. Can they drive prices low enough to trigger longer term money, or will they be squeezed more? Time will tell.

Focusing Tuesday on Monday’s wide POC at 1909 for acceptance/rejection, and also at the late afternoon rally high at 1922.75. The base of Monday’s spike also still appears to be in play. If overnight trade Monday can stay above the regular session close at 1914.25 further short squeezing might occur on Tuesday if they can’t trade below it.

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Friday Jan 8, 2016 S&P Market Profile Recap

January 8 Market Profile Structure
Opening within Thursday’s range, a lot of confusion and chop with somewhat large abrupt swings dominated the early trading session. The market sold off early from just two ticks below half back. After a poor low formed and was taken out at 1935.50 the ensuing rally failed to take out the early half back level at 1944.50, reaching only as high as 1943.50. From there the S&P sold off 33 points, one-timeframing lower to 1910.

Depending on where the market opens on Monday, Market Profile traders will be focusing on the base of Friday’s spike at 1924.50 for acceptance or rejection(1923.25 is the base of spike on collapsed profile view, but the break of the low on the expanded view is at 1924.50), does it open above, below or within the spike? The market also left a poor low at 1910.

While NYSE volume was somewhat high at 4.6 billion, was it commensurate with the market selloff? Friday’s POC did not migrate lower with price so many traders may be “short in the hole”.

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