Narrow range, balanced inside day in the ES with price trading above and below the 2153 prior day’s late rally high and closing price in 11 of the 13 market profile periods.
There was just over a 6 point total range for the day until the final minutes of the pit trading session, when price rallied from the K period pullback low (the exact half back level at the time) to take out the day’s earlier 3 TPO wide poor high by two points.
The 11 TPO wide prominent point of control keeps 2153.25 an important reference. If price opens within range, any breakout from the inside day should have better odds of continuation if price first checks in with the wide POC. But with such a small trading range there are also good odds that price opens with a gap the next regular trading session.
After a slow grind higher to 2012 and leaving 8 points of single prints in the first 30 minute trading period Thursday, price pulled back in B period to exactly half-back and tried to rally again, but buyers couldn’t get price back above the B period high. C period started selling off ahead of the EIA Petroleum Status Report due out at 11 am (EST), which was to cite a 2.25% lower crude ouput production.
More selling in D period saw price re-enter the previous day’s range, following crude oil’s lead, one timeframing lower for 7 consecutive 30 minute market profile periods before I period briefly stopped the one timeframing. But the next two periods saw price continue lower to 2081.75, a few ticks below Wednesday’s pullback low and 20 points off the high of the day before short covering back exactly to the day’s half back level, and closing the session at 2092.25.
The market left an unfilled single print at 2093.75, the previous day’s close, and another poor low at 2081.75.
Depending on where the market opens on Friday, Thursday’s late rally high at 2092.25 to the single print at 2093.75 could be early trading references for the pit session – acceptance below those levels could target the poor low, but Friday’s pre-market features the monthly employment report at 8:30am (EST) which is sure to provide volatility before the market opens. Acceptance above the high from Thursday could at least see price test the overnight session post Brexit recovery high from July 3rd at 2004.75.
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