The ES is in short term balance, a two day balance inside a four day balance, just below the most recent all time highs. The market traded in less than an 8 point range in the previous two regular trading sessions combined.

Short term traders dominated the market again on Monday as longer term participants were apparently on the sidelines waiting for key earnings reports and Wednesday’s upcoming Fed meeting: Thursday’s low matched the Globex low exactly, and the day session’s high was exactly at the Globex high. Price also very mechanically one timeframed higher for nine consecutive periods in D period through L, leaving a poor high in the profile with no excess at 2470.50.

Monday’s high was just a single tick above the high from Friday, making a both poor high (no excess) and a weak high, with good odds of being revisited.

Looking ahead, price acceptance above the two day balance high at 2470.50 targets the very prominent point of control from 7/20 at 2472.75, and potentially the all time highs – the RTH high at 2475.25, and the Globex all time high at 2476.25.

A breakout with acceptance below the two day balance low at 2462.75 targets the prior all time high at 2461.25, and potentially the gap fill of the 7/18 high at 2458.50.

The longer the market remains in a tight balancing range, the higher the odds are of a more extreme move out of it.

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