With overnight inventory basically 100% net short, price opened within the lower excess single prints from the prior day’s profile. Very choppy trade followed as price dipped below the prior low and traded through the opening print multiple times in the opening 30 minute period before accelerating lower at the open of the second (B) period, to 4 ticks short of the prior weekly low.

About 11 points of A/B single prints were retraced in the third (C) period as price reversed off the lows, balancing in the upper half of the profile the remainder of the session, leaving a poor high in the profile at 2578.25.

Value was clearly established lower early for the day, although price closed back within the previous range.

Using the wide point of control at 2575.75 as an early reference, acceptance above that level targets the poor high at 2578.25 and potentially the naked point of control at 2581.50 from 11/13. Price acceptance above 2581.50 targets the 11/13 high at 2585.50 and potentially challenges the all time high at 2593.50.

Acceptance below the POC could lead to another test of Tuesday’s low. There are now 3 weekly lows tightly grouped together, setting up the possibility of a future ‘firecracker effect’ where trading below one significant price level triggers stops below, which in turn sets off more stops below it, which could lead to more significant liquidation at least in the short/intermediate time frames.

It is still early but there’s a possibility that the current week can end as an inside week, leaving excess at the all time high on the intermediate time frame.

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