The ES broke out below of its tight 3 day balance on Thursday, trading through the very prominent point of control from May 4th at 2383.75. But after forming a poor low in B/C periods at 2379.00, price short covered back into the prior day’s trading range.

The first clues that any potential selloff would probably not be lasting was that price sold off from exactly at the early half back level, and mechanically one tick below the opening print, intra-bar early in the opening period,

After accelerating below Tuesday’s low at 2388.75, momentum traders piled onto the short side driving price lower and leaving a very long string of single prints in the opening period, over 8 points. Looking at past profile, it is extremely rare to see that many single prints remaining unrepaired (not filled in). They are often repaired, at least partially, the same day they are formed.

The market one timeframed higher off B/C period poor low, finding
acceptance back into three day range. Value was clearly lower on the session.

Price is currently trading near the top of a balancing range on the weekly chart, and one timeframing higher:

April was an inside month, and the market has not stopped onetimeframing higher on the longer time frame monthly chart.

Wednesday’s very prominent point of control at 2395.00 was just one tick above the April high at 2394.75. Acceptance above that level could easily see price attempt to repair the poor high at 2397.00 and possibly challenge the all time high, exactly at 2400.00 on the June contract. The all time Globex high is still at 2403.75, a potential target to carry forward if price can rally.

On Friday, If price opens within Thursday’s range, there are probably good odds of early chop. But Thursday’s value was lower, and the profile left a poor low. Depending on where price is at the market open, the poor low can come into play.

There are numerous daily lows now closely grouped together between 2375.50 and 2379.00, and potentially many stops below the prior weekly low at 2375.50. Stopping the one timeframing higher on the weekly chart could bring in more serious selling.

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