Early volatility, choppy, mechanical price action Thursday as traders await the outcome of the U.S. House of Representatives TrumpCare healthcare bill vote. Initially scheduled for Thursday evening the meeting was postponed, which prompted late selling when that announcement came out.
The market is in a three day balance between Tuesday’s selloff lower distribution high at 2357.25 and Wednesday’s low at 2332.25, which corresponds to near matching lows from February 16/17. If traders do not like the results of Friday’s House vote the potential exists of a downside breakout, potentially hitting stops below the balance low.
ES Balance Area
If a more serious breakout occurs, potential destination targets to the downside could include the unfilled gap from February 10 at 2312.75, and the emotional 2300.00 price level.
ES Daily Chart
If the market likes the vote results and breaks out higher from the balance it could fill in some of the many single prints from Tuesday’s upper range.
Other potential trade scenarios could see price look either above or below the balance and fail, return back into balance potentially targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance. The odds are probably lower that price remains in balance if the vote results are released during the U.S. pit session.
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