Double Distribution

march 16 Fed Day

Wednesday was a double distribution day, trading in and out of the previous three day balance area multiple times. That is not a sign of a strong market. To remain positive price should not find acceptance below the lower distribution at 2012, which was also the late day pullback low. The single print at 2009.25 is also a short term reference point. The prior gap at 2021.25 was also filled on Wednesday.

Acceptance back within the three day balance could target the low of the range.

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3 Day Balance Before FOMC Meeting

3 day balance area

FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET Wednesday March 16

The Federal funds rate target is expected to remain unchanged at a range between 0.25 to 0.50 percent, where it was set at the December FOMC. Though some Fed officials have been pointing to the strength of recent inflation data, there are no expectations among Econoday’s 12 forecasters for any change at the March meeting.

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Friday March 11 Market Profile Graph

March 11 Market Profile Garph

Friday’s low has only one tick of excess and bounced just one tick off of Thursday’s high suggesting shorter time frame traders in control. In addition the late day pullback to 2002.75 was exactly to half back-another day time frame trader’s reference. Trading with acceptance either above or below Friday’s point of control could give clues as to which direction to trade on Monday. The next reference would be Friday’s close, followed by the overnight high.

Acceptance above the POC and Friday’s high could add to the upside targeting the unfilled gap at 2021.25 (March contract).

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