Balanced, Inside Day on Last Trading Day of Month, Quarter

Balanced, inside day on the last trading day in the month and quarter on Friday. Price failed to trade below the previous day’s excess single prints at 2358.50 until the final half hour period.

Friday’s high at 2366.75, also the weekly high, was exactly at the prior day’s poor high (no excess TPO’s).

poor and weak high on market profile chart

Depending on where price opens on Monday, balance trading rules could apply: look above or below the one day balance and accelerate or fail, or remain balancing.

One potential “look above and fail” day trading scenario could see price repair the back to back poor/weak highs at 2366.75 and fail, returning back into the two day balance to test Friday’s low at 2357.75. Acceptance below that level would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and would probably test Thursday’s 2354.00 low.

Lower potential price targets, should selling intensify, are the March 29th low at 2348.75, March 28th single print at 2342.75 and single print and prior trading range low at 2131.50.

If/when the market finds acceptance below the 2332 prior support level and if there is more serious selling pressure, more extreme levels could include the March 28th low at 2318.00 and unfilled gap (eventually) from February at 2312.75.

To the upside, acceptance above Friday’s poor high keeps the short term uptrend intact and would stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly chart, potentially targeting the remaining single prints and 2378.75 high from March the 21st selloff, and 3 daily highs above that level, including the March 16th poor high at 2384.50, which was mechanically at the upper excess level from the March 15th recovery high.

The all time S&P 500 Emini high on the March contract is at 2398.50. It is also a “poor” high.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Low Volume Breakout of Balance

After a low volume breakout of the previous inside day the ES left another poor high on the Market Profile chart, trading back into the excess single print selling tail from March 21st.

another-poor-high

Price acceptance above Thursday’s high will continue to fill in the March 21st selloff excess, retracing the downward move and possibly challenge the previous weekly high made on that day at 2378.75, ending the month on a bullish note.

The market is one timeframing higher on the daily chart going into the last trading day of the month. Price would have to trade above 2378.75 to stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly.

If Thursday’s poor high is repaired, monitor price for continuation above Thursday’s balance, or for a potential “look above and fail” scenario.

value-area-higher

If price finds acceptance below 2358.50 and into the A period buying tail excess single prints, Thursday’s low at 2354.00 should have good odds of being tested, which would put price back into the prior balance.

During Tuesday’s rally, the late pullback low at 2351.00 (also the March 9th pullback low from the all time high) was an important trading reference. After being tested on Wednesday price rallied, although very mechanically and on declining volume, from that level. Trading below 2351.00 could bring more downside pressure.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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