FOMC Day Leaves Questionable High and Low in Market Profile




weak high and poor low in ES market profile chart

The ES is trading in a two day balance. Potential trade scenarios could include:

– Remain in balance, possibly trading slightly above or below the current two day balance, but mainly trading within it.

– Look above and repair the near matching highs and fail to find acceptance at higher prices, returning back into the two day balance targeting the point of control and potentially the opposite end of the range.

– Look above the two day balance, repairing the two near matching highs and find acceptance at higher prices, targeting the low from 1/26 at 2846.50 and potentially the unfilled gap from 1/19 at 2851.50. Acceptance back into that balanced day’s profile could target the value area low, point of control, and possibly the high of that day. The all time high was made in an overnight session. Although they can last for some time, record highs made in after hours trading sessions have always been revisited during a regular hour trading session.

– Look below and repair the poor low at 2813.00 and return back into the two day balance, targeting the point of control and potentially the high of the range.

– Look below the current two day balance low at 2813.00 and find acceptance at lower prices, targeting the prior weekly low at 2809.25, potentially testing the 2800 level.

If price opens with the range, the near back to back points of control could provide early support or resistance, depending on which side of it price opens. Prominent points of control can often act as price magnets, drawing price back to it.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Rallies to Another New Record High

ES rallies to another new all time high, market profile chart
one timeframing higher
Price one timeframed higher every 30 minute period




Market Profile commentary

Overnight inventory was 100% long coming into the regular trading session on Friday.

Mechanical buying off the overnight halfback price level in the opening period (overnight chart not shown), again off the open print in C period, and again off the overnight high at the low of E, signaled another day apparently being dominated by short term traders. Price continued to one tiemframe higher after the open for the entire session.

“Traders do what works until it doesn’t work anymore”. In this case buying off common, visual day time frame references and taking price to another new all time high.

The late day spike in L period at 2863.25 could be an early market profile reference on the next regular hours trading day, depending on where price opens after the weekend; acceptance within or above the spike shows the higher prices are being accepted, and could lead to a test of the all time high (2900 is now within striking distance). Opening/acceptance below the spike base could tell us that the late higher prices are being rejected.

If price finds acceptance back below 2863.25, the potential destination is the low of that balance at 2858.00, and possibly a test the single print at 2856.50. Acceptance back into the lower distribution could target the opposite end of that balance, Friday’s low.

The poor, mechanical structure of Friday’s profile makes the rally appear to be very questionable, probably leaving good odds that at least some of the anomalies from Friday’s chart will be revisited/repaired.


Note – at the time of this posting (Sunday evening) the overnight market had already traded to another new record high. While not guaranteed, all time highs that have been made in an overnight session have always been revisited during a regular day trading session. However, there have been overnight records highs in the past that had remained for a considerable amount of time before being retested in a daytime session.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Market Profile Report: Wide Point of Control, Four Ticks of Excess at New All Time High




balance at new all time high leaves prominent point of control

Another new record high was made in the overnight session before Tuesdays open at 2842.00. Price opened within the upper end of Monday’s range and late day spike (showing that the prior day’s late price probe was being accepted), and initially failed to take out the overnight high in the opening drive. A new all time regular session high was put in at 2844.75 after price rallied off the prior day’s high in C/D period.

Split view market profile chart
Mechanical buying was the theme early, with buying at dips off mechanical price levels, most notably at the C/G/J bar lows at just one and two ticks above the prior day session high.

Notable Market Profile References

The D period excess above the C period high held throughout Tuesday’s balancing session, making 2843.75 potentially an important reference on Wednesday. If that excess holds, the odds probably favor at least a retest of 2836.75, and could increase the odds of a potential downside liquidation break and potentially lower prices.

The next downside references below 2836.76 are Monday’s low at 2832.00, and the base of Monday’s late spike at 2828.25. Price acceptance below that level targets at least some of the multiple anomalies in Monday’s profile. Anomalies are a sign of more emotional, momentum based trading and have high odds of being revisited in the very near future.

But all trends remain up. The very wide point of control at 2840.00 limited downside contnuation on Tuesday. That level could provide early support or resistance on Wednesday, depending on which side of it the market opens.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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