ES Four Day Balance




The ES is trading inside a four day balance from 8/22 to 8/25. . Generally, the longer a market remains within a tight balance, the stronger the move out of it can be.

four day balance
ES trading in a four day balance. Generally the longer a market remains in a tight balance the stronger the move out of it is.

Four Day Balance
Potential balance scenarios that could apply in regard to the 4 day balance: Look above or below balance and accelerate, look above or below balance and fail and return back into the balance potentially targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance.

If the market opens inside of Friday’s range on Monday (regular session), notable market profile references are Friday’s rally high at 2449.50 and the poor no excess low at 2441.00. The profile also left a wide point of control at 2446.00, which could act as early support or resistance.

Trading above 2449.50 puts price back into the upper distributions from 8/17 and 8/22 , acceptance above 2449.50 targets Friday’s high, and the current 4 day balance high at 2454.00.

Acceleration above 2454.00 would be a break out of the current four day balance with the potential of a larger price move higher. If the market breaks out to the upside with acceptance, potential higher price levels are noted in this previous post. Failure to find acceptance higher brings price back into the prior range, potentially to eventually retest the low end of the balance.

On the downside, repairing and trading with acceptance below Friday’s poor low at 2441.00 should have good odds of testing Thursday’s low at 2434.50 and the four day balance low (and top of gap) at 2432.75, and potentially the gap fill from 8/21 at 2429.50. Further liquidation could target the current August low at 2415.75

With only four trading days left in the month, the potential still exists for the monthly one timeframing higher to end. The July low is at 2405.25, with the June low just below that level at 2402.25. There are potentially significant stops below those levels.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Three Day Balance

The ES has yet to find acceptance back above the 2449.25 single print and into the upper distributions from the 8/17 and 8/22 market profile daily charts.

three day balance in ES

Opening near the high of the prior day’s small 9 point, balanced inside day, a classic “look above balance and fail” scenario quickly played out early Thursday, as price traded 5 ticks above the prior high but a tick short of the single print below the upper distribution from Tuesday’s triple distribution profile.

The opening 30 minute period selling left a long string of unfilled single prints (10 points) and traded through Wednesdays entire 9 point range, but first half hour NYSE volume was relatively low at only 283,515, suggesting the early selling would not be lasting.

End of day NYSE volume under 2.7 billion. There was also no “outside day”, where price trades above or below the prior day’s range but closes outside of the opposite end. Not a sign of strength by the bears.

Value developed lower Thursday with a widening point of control hovering around 2440.75 where it closed, matching the CME settlement..

Although 2454.00 is the actual high of the three day balance, the single print below Tuesdays upper distribution at 2449.25 could be important early on Friday if price opens within Thursday’s range.

Price acceptance back above 2449.50 could target Tuesday’s high at 2454.00, and potentially tests the upper distribution high from 8/17 and excess single prints above 2459.75. Acceptance above 2460.00 brings the weak matching highs from 8/9, 8/16 at 2474.00 into focus.

Failure to trade above 2449.00 keeps the short term downtrend in tact and should draw price, minimally, back to Thursday’s wide part of Thursday’s profile, targeting Thursday’s settle and point of control at 2440.75.

If price opens below 2440.75 that level could be resistance, with high odds of price testing the previous two daily lows at 2434.50 and 2432.75 (top of gap), and potentially the unfilled gap from 8/21 at 2429.50.

On Friday the Jackson Hole summit continues in Wyoming with Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking at 10am EST (1400GMT) and Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, at 3pm EST (1900GMT), among other Fed speakers. Volatility is likely.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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9 point balanced inside day, excess low and poor high

9 point balanced inside day in ES
9 point balanced inside day in ES, excess low and poor high

Potential trade scenarios:

– Price looks above and repairs Wednesday’s poor high and finds acceptance back in the upper distributions from 8/22, 8/17.
– Price looks above and repairs Wednesday’s poor high and fails to find acceptance higher, returning back into Wednesday’s range.
– Trade below Wednesday’s settle at 2441.50 and accelerate/find acceptance in the combined lower excess from the excess single prints in the 8/22, 8/23 profiles, and potentially targeting the unfilled gap from 8/21 at 2429.50
– Trade below Wednesday’s settle, look below the low at 2438.75 and return back into the small, 9 point range, potentially targeting the poor high at the opposite end.
– Remain in balance, unlikely because of the narrow range.

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