Short Term Balance Below All Time Highs

The ES is in short term balance, a two day balance inside a four day balance, just below the most recent all time highs. The market traded in less than an 8 point range in the previous two regular trading sessions combined.

two day balance inside four day balance
two day balance inside four day balance

Short term traders dominated the market again on Monday as longer term participants were apparently on the sidelines waiting for key earnings reports and Wednesday’s upcoming Fed meeting: Thursday’s low matched the Globex low exactly, and the day session’s high was exactly at the Globex high. Price also very mechanically one timeframed higher for nine consecutive periods in D period through L, leaving a poor high in the profile with no excess at 2470.50.

one time framing higher in just a seven point range
price one time framing higher in just a six point range

Monday’s high was just a single tick above the high from Friday, making a both poor high (no excess) and a weak high, with good odds of being revisited.

Looking ahead, price acceptance above the two day balance high at 2470.50 targets the very prominent point of control from 7/20 at 2472.75, and potentially the all time highs – the RTH high at 2475.25, and the Globex all time high at 2476.25.

A breakout with acceptance below the two day balance low at 2462.75 targets the prior all time high at 2461.25, and potentially the gap fill of the 7/18 high at 2458.50.

The longer the market remains in a tight balancing range, the higher the odds are of a more extreme move out of it.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Value and POC Still Trending Higher, Another New Record High

Traders were still buying pulllbacks as the ES traded to another new all time high in the regular trading hour session. After the second straight gap higher opening, the new record high was set in the opening minutes, but fell short of testing the new Globex all time high at 2476.25, made prior to the opening bell.

Choppy trade in and out of the prior day’s range followed after a sharp break in C period repaired the remaining anomalies from the previous session’s profile.

value and point of control still trending higher to new all time high
value and point of control still trending higher to new all time high

Thursday’s profile left an 11 TPO wide point of control at 2472.75. Value was higher on the day, and all trends remain up.

The all time ES 24 hour high is now at 2476.25, created in Wednesday’s Globex session. Although they can last for some time, all time highs made in an overnight session have always eventually been revisited during a regular trading hours session. If price opens above Thursday’s POC on Friday and offers early support, the Globex all time high could be the destination. If developing value remains higher nothing would probably have changed in regards to the current market condition, all trends are up.

If, during the session, price trades through the all time high and value is not migrating higher, there is the possibility of a “look above and fail” scenario if sellers are waiting at the all time high.

If price opens below the POC, and value develops as overlapping to lower from the prior session’s small value area, odds probably suggest price trading within a three day balance.

Thursday’s late K period pullback to 2470.50 was exactly at halfback, another sign that shorter term traders were apparently in control. The market closed two ticks above that level. Acceptance below the prior close could easily target the C period single print buying tail, and possibly Thursday’s low. There are two gaps below the market, from July 18th at 2458.50 and July 11th 2427.25. Acceleration below Thursday’s low targets Wednesday’s low at 2461.25, the prior all time high, and potentially the first gap fill at 2458.50.

split view profile shows half back level.

July 21st is the third Friday of the month, there could be added volatility due to monthly options expirations.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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