The ES balanced near the midpoint of the July 27th selloff range on Monday, in between the single print and upper distribution from that day at 2475.70 and the excess single prints above the prior week’s low at 2457.00.
The bulk of Monday’s trade took place in just about a 5 point range, with excess on both the top and the bottom of Monday’s profile leaving both a selling and a buying tail.
Looking at the entire 9 3/4 total point trading range as a balanced day, early acceptance above or below Monday’s very wide point of control at 2470.00 could give clues as to attempted market direction. When excess, which occurs in all time frames, is removed, the potential for change exists.
Trading above Monday’s high at 2475.00 retests the upper distribution from July 27th, acceptance back into that balance could easily test the all time high at 2480.50. While there is substantial excess on the weekly and monthly bars, there is only three ticks of excess at the all time high on the daily TPO chart.
Acceleration and/or acceptance with developing value below Monday’s low at 2465.25 brings Friday’s low at 2461.50 and the excess single prints from July 27th into focus, taking out that excess could also signal potential change.
A breakout from either side of Monday’s balance could have better odds of continuation if price first revisits the wide POC. Another possible scenario would see price remain in or around Monday’s balance on Tuesday, although probably unlikely because of the small range.
The July close at 2470.00 was well above its low at 2505.25, one timeframing higher for 8 consecutive months. With the daily bar balancing, the weekly bar is in it’s 5th consecutive week of one timeframing higher. Trading below 2457.00 would stop the weekly one timeframing higher, another potential sign of change.
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