Volatility, Late Selling, Market Still One Timeframing Higher on Daily Chart

market-profile-chart-April-25-26-2017

The ES opened a tick below the previous pit session close on Wednesday, traded two ticks lower to one tick below the overnight session half back and wide point of control at 2384.50, bounced, then tested the low again before slowly grinding higher in another low confidence, slow paced start to the U.S. pit session.

split view market profile charts April 25.26

After grinding higher through D period, volatility entered the market with price selling off sharply in E period and re-entering the prior day’s range, but with no follow through price rallied back to the high, leaving a poor high at 2394.75 with only one tick of excess. Price sold off in the final hour of the day on higher volume, driving price lower to Tuesday’s G period low.

The point of control widened from 5 TPO’s at 2388.50 in G period to 10 wide at 2389.00 by the end of the day. Value was higher.

Wednesday’s low at 2382.00 could be a potential go/no go price level on Thursday – acceptance below the low would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and pressure recent longs, potentially driving price down through the excess single prints and attempt to fill the gap from Monday. If price can reenter a prior balance, Monday’s squat profile, there is the potential of trading to the opposite side of the balance.

Failure for price to find acceptance below the now congested 2382.00 level would keep the week’s bullish tone in tact, but price would have to find acceptance above Wednesday’s wide POC and late breakdown point at 2389.00 to repair the poor high at 2394.75 and make a run at the all time high.

The all time high on the ES futures June contract is at 2398.00. The all time high from the March contract was 2401.00. The psychological 2400 level was not reached in the June contract after rollover.

ES daily chart through April 26

ES-daily-chart

(the above post, and all posts on , es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

Back to Back Gap Higher Openings

Tuesday’s ES market opened at 2378.50, 4 1/2 points above the prior high of Monday’s small range session and the second day in a row opening with a gap higher in price.

Overnight inventory was net long as most of the overnight trade above the prior pit close, and not corrected early with the opening drive higher. The pace slowed in B period, leaving 5 points of excess single prints and an early “P” market profile formation.

Balancing below the B period high, C, D, E & F bars traded in a tight three point range, and the point of control widened to 5 TPO’s. The lows of the B through E bars were very mechanically within a tick of each another.

split view profile
split view profile

Price dropped sharply at the opening of G period, bouncing exactly off the session half back level at 2382.25, a very visual price reference. With the POC widening to 8 TPO’s in I period the market one timeframed higher off the G period halfback low until putting in a high for the day at 2389.25 in L period, 1 1/4 points above the very visual rally high and prior weekly high from March 15th at 2387.75.

Focus for Wednesday could be on the wide point of control at 2385.25 and regular session close at 2385.00. Acceptance below the POC should see price test Tuesday’s G period low at halfback, a weak reference because of the exactness of it. Acceleration/acceptance below 2382.25 would fill in at least some of the single prints from Tuesday’s early A period bar.

The market is now one timefaming higher on the daily chart for 7 consecutive days. Trading below Tuesday’s low at 2377.50 would stop the daily one timeframing higher.

Gaps are a sign of excess, and can also be viewed as single prints. Acceptance below 2377.50 could make an attempt to fill the gap above Monday’s high. Reentering Monday’s small range would have the potential for price to trade through that balance, target the poor low at 2365.75.

The all time high on the ES futures March contract was at 2401.00. The psychological 2400 level was not reached in the June contract after rollover. Acceptance above 2385.25 keeps the rally going, potentially targeting the psychological 2400 level.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: