Balanced Day, Poor High at Latest New All Time High

After making yet another new all time high in the overnight Globex session at 2370.00, the S&P 500 E-mini U.S. pit session opened the week near the high of the previous week’s four day trading balance, and inside Friday’s late day spike above 2360.50. Generally, opening inside a spike shows acceptance of the higher prices from the prior day’s late price surge.

After trading through the top of the balance multiple times in B, C and D period, but short of the new all time Globex session high, price mechanically bounced off the open price at 2363.75 in the sixth (F) period before grinding higher to take out the new high by a few ticks, putting in a new all time pit session high at 2370.75. The new all time high can be considered a poor high on the market profile chart, since it has only one tick of excess at the L/M bar highs.

Monday’s point of control at 2366.00, just below the four day balance high, could be an early trading reference for Tuesday’s pit session. Although value had developed higher on Monday, the point of control did not migrate higher with the breakout from the four day balance.

If price does not make another new all time high during Monday’s overnight session, and opens inside Monday’s range, the POC could be early support or resistance. If the market opens below the POC and ignores Monday’s poor high, price should easily test Monday’s weak F period pullback low to the open and possibly retest Friday’s spike base at 2360.50. Below that level is a very prominent NPOC at 2358.00 that could act as a price magnet, pulling price back towards it.

If price does reenter and is accepted back inside the four day balance the lower extreme at 2351.00 (of the balance) has the potential to be a destination trade. If profit taking ensues and price sells off further, lower potential price targets are noted in this recent market profile recap.

Acceptance above Monday’s pit session point of control and close could easily see price test and repair the new all time high.

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ES – Look Below Balance and Fail, Destination Trade: Back to The Top of Balance

The market continues to be dominated by short term and day time frame traders with no longer term participation outside of the now four day trading range.

Friday’s ES pit session opened with a slight gap below the previous day’s low and reentered the three day balance. When price looks outside of a balance and fails, then reenters the range, the opposite end of the balance is the potential short term price target.

Notable market profile references for trading on Monday’s pit session trading hours are the very prominent point of control at 2358.00, and the late day upward spike from 2360.50:

– If price opens below the base of the spike 2360.50 it could be considered negative, as the late price probe or spike is rejected, leaving a selling tail.

– Opening within the spike above 2360.50 could show that price is accepted and keeps the rally in tact, finding a level where two sided trading can occur.

– Opening and trading above the top of the spike can imply that price did not trade high enough on Friday to cut off the buying and allow two-sided trade to take place.

Balance trading rules still could apply, depending on where price is at Monday’s open, as price was mainly contained inside the three day balance, making it a four day balance:

– Look above or below the four day balance and continue higher or lower.

– Look above or below the balance and fail and reenter the range, with rotation back to the opposite end of balance the potential target.

– Remain in balance.

Friday’s opening period low came within one tick of filling the gap at 2351.00. Value ended the session as overlapping to lower.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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