ES – 9 Point Inside Day, Leaves Prominent Point of Control, Poor High and Low

es-inside-day-Market Profilepoor-high-and-low

The ES traded in a 9 point balance on the last trading day of the month, leaving a prominent point of control at 2123.50, and both a poor high and a poor low with only one tick of excess at each end.

Balance trading rules could apply on Tuesday:

  • look either above or below Monday’s balance and accelerate
  • look above or below balance and fail – returning back into the balance, targeting the opposite end
  • remain balanced

Acceptance above Monday’s high at 2127.75 could target the October 28th poor high at 2135.25. Acceptance below Monday’s low at 2118.75 could see price test the prior weekly low at 2112.50, and potentially the October low at 2007.75.

Monday’s close at 2123.00 and prominent point of control at 2123.50 (fairest price) are within two tick of each other, a breakout from either side of Monday’s range should have better odds of continuation on Tuesday if price first tests that area.

Expect volatility this week as this is a heavy news week, including the FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday.

The ES is one timeframing lower on the monthly chart.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

Market Profile Open-Drive Leaves Early Selling Tail, Late Day Selling Leaves Spike

The ES gapped open above the previous day’s poor high on Thursday and quickly sold off from a tick below the previous weekly high at 2142.50, accelerating lower into the previous pit session range.

The selling, which was on higher first half hour NYSE volume, left many excess single prints in the opening period, leaving a market profile selling tail. Higher than expected pending home sales had no effect as the selling intensified in B period, repairing all of Wednesday’s anomalies. B period also left a long string of excess single prints.

es-selloff-from-weekly-high
After balancing in C and D periods, the market rallied in E, filling in the B period excess single prints and closed the double distribution.

After becoming rotational and developing a wide point of control at 2132.00, the market one timeframed lower from J period into the close, accelerating lower in the final period and leaving a late day spike from 2126.50. Thursday’s pit session ended as an outside day.

With no clear direction from longer term money ahead of Friday’s GDP report, short term traders are controlling this range bound market, continually finding themselves too long and too short, and constantly correcting through liquidation breaks and short covering rallies.

The immediate market profile trading reference for Friday, depending on where the ES opens, could be the base of the late day spike at 2126.50. Did the late break trade low enough to cut off the selling, or will price need to search lower to find two sided trade? Friday’s 8:30 ET GDP report should provide early volatility and a possible direction for Friday’s trade.

If price opens above the spike, and finds acceptance above the point of control at 2132.00, the market could test the 2133.75 K period high – which was exactly at the previous close, and the E/F rally high at 2136.25 – which was exactly at the overnight half back level. Both very visual trading references used by short term and day traders, the weakest of hands.

If/when excess is removed it can signify change or the potential for change to take place. If the market can take out Thursday’s excess single prints and find acceptance above the previous week’s high at 2142.50 it could bring higher prices. As the end of the month draws near, the ES is one timeframing lower on the monthly chart. Price would have to trade above 2163.50 before the end of October to stop the one monthly timeframing.

To the downside, acceptance within or below the spike could easily test Thursday’s low at 2122.50, acceleration/acceptance below 2122.50 could make an attempt to repair the poor low from Oct. 17th at 2117.75, and potentially test the current multi day pit session trading range low at 2107.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

ES Lower Value, Anomalies in Profile

Overnight inventory was 100% short from the previous day’s close heading into Wednesday ES pit session. A gap lower open repaired all of the anomalies from the Oct. 21st poor structure profile, including the weak B period low reference from that day where short term traders rallied off the opening price.

market-profile-anomalies

There was no immediate correction to the short overnight inventory as the opening period high traded to just two ticks below the overnight halfback level, a visual short term traders reference, and reversed five points.

After forming an inside balancing bar in B period, the ES once again followed crude’s lead and rallied in C period off the EIA petroleum status report, trading into the prior day’s trading range and through the previous close, correcting the short overnight inventory.

Market Profile split view:

value-area-lower-in-emini

But with no real acceptance above Tuesday’s wide point of control and the short covering completed, a break lower in H period below the prior low sold off to the floating half back level. The selling continued through I period with price reentering the lower distribution and first period initial balance. Crude oil also reversed from its high, the two markets were again trading in tandem.

Price bounced from a tick below the opening price in J period and one timeframed higher for the remainder of the session, but was not accepted back inside the previous day’s range.

If the market opens within this erratic range on Thursday it would probably be a good idea to let it shake out before entering a trade, as the odds could favor early chop. Wednesday’s J period low off the open print and L period late rally high at the prior low (both very visual short term references) can be considered weak and probably have good odds of being tested. Acceptance above 2136.00 could target Wednesday’s D/E period poor high at 2140.00.

The ES is trading in a wide, multi day balance. Be aware of the potential of a “firecracker effect”, if price can accelerate through Wednesday’s low there exists the possibility of stops being hit below the similar daily lows at 2124.75 and 2123.25. The unrepaired poor low also still exists from Oct. 17th at 2117.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: