A Very Mechanical Day Trading in the ES

The market opened at the lower end of the previous day’s range on Thursday, looking briefly below Wednesday’s low then rallying back into its range, trading to and pulling back from very visual references and suggesting early that this day was being controlled by short and day time frame traders:


– In A period, price traded higher exactly to the combined, visual references of the overnight session half back/single print from Wednesday at 2172.75, and pulled back exactly to the opening price before rallying again.

– In B period, price traded higher exactly to the wide point of control from the overnight session at 2174.75 (2 ticks shy of unchanged), then pulled back to just one tick above the current session’s half back level at 2171.50.

D period rallied higher but failed to gain acceptance above Wednesday’s late rally high and overnight high at 2176.00.

– E and F periods sold lower, but F bounced exactly off the floating half back level at 2172.50, more mechanical trading.

There are often good odds that very visual, mechanically traded levels like the F and earlier B period lows could be revisited, either during the same trading session or soon after. After balancing in G and H periods and forming an 8 wide point of control at 2173.75 the market broke lower, trading through the B & F references in I period but bounced from just one tick above the opening print. The mechanical trading continued.

The wide developing point of control at 2173.75 lowered the odds of price trading too far away from it. J,K and L periods all traded within just one tick of the A period low, making it a poor low on Thursday’s market profile chart, but could not get continuation below the earlier low.

For any meaningful continuation lower a second, lower distribution would probably have to develop and the developing point of control should migrate lower. Neither happened. Price balanced through M period, and the point of control failed to migrate lower. The market apparently short covered back to its POC at the end of the regular session.

Thursday ended as a balanced day, with a poor low and lower value. The market is now one timeframing lower for three consecutive days. Trading with acceptance above Thursday’s unchanged/POC level could target Thursday’s high. Failure to trade above 2177.25 keeps the one timeframing lower on the daily chart intact.

Acceptance below Thursday’s poor low could easily target the previous weekly low at 2165.25 and the bottom of the unfilled gap on the daily chart at 2163.50. There is also a very prominent naked point of control left from Aug. 4 at 2159.00.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Another S&P 500 emini All Time High and Another “Poor” High


The ES gapped open higher on Tuesday, taking out the previous all time high (poor high at 3 TPOs wide) at 2090.75 by three ticks but stalled there, chopping around the new all time high in just a two point range for the most of A and B periods. The market traded in just a four point range for the first five thirty minute periods.

Although value was higher on the day the market one timeframed lower from the B period high (also a poor high with just one tick of excess), as no 30 minute bar exceed the high of its previous bar by more than one tick.


The new all time S&P 500 emini futures pit session high is now at 2191.50, with three ticks of excess on the daily bar chart. NYSE daily volume was still low at 3 billion.

Will the market make another run at another new all time high on Wednesday, or trade below Tuesday’s balance and reenter the prior multi-day trading range. Odds are probably lower that it will remain in balance with Tuesday.

Possible trading scenarios if price opens within Tuesday’s range on Wednesday:

– Look above Tuesday’s balance and accelerate to more new all time highs and potentially the psychological 2200 level.

– Look below Tuesday’s balance and accelerate back into the previous multi-day trading range, potentially targeting Monday’s prominent POC and low of day, followed by the bottom of the previous trading range and unfilled gap from Aug. 4th.

– Look above or below balance and fail, and return back into Tuesday’s balance targeting the opposite end of balance (and possibly beyond).

– Stay within balance / or more low volume chop.

Oil inventory reports have been having an effect on the financial markets, So Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report report at 10:30 ET could cause some volatility in the ES. Existing Home Sales are also due out at 10:00 AM ET.

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