Pre FOMC Day Market Profile Recap

With neutral overnight inventory coming into the session, the ES opened within the previous day’s range on Tuesday. After looking above Monday’s high in A period, B opened slightly below it, looked a tick above, and returned back into Monday’s range. After forming an inside in B period, C busted through it to the downside (5 minute drop in one minute) with no apparent news to cause the sudden spike lower other than being the day before FOMC.

C accelerated lower through Monday’s range repairing the poor low, D created a weak low at just one tick from matching the July 21st low at 2153.75

pre-FOMC-Day-volatility-ES-July-27-2016

D reentered the previous range – with E accelerating higher, initially pausing at just one tick below the previous close, once again defining that short term, emotional traders were controlling the market. The E period closed the lower distribution.

Volatility calmed down, forming a small inside bar in G period with a widening POC developing at 2161.50

A delayed breakout lower in H stayed within value and range from the previous day’s regular session, and the market traded within balance the remainder of the session.

Although price traded outside of the previous day’s range in C/D period it did not get the outside day, as price traded back into and closed within the previous day’s range.

The near matching lows from 7/21 and 7/26 can be considered weak because of the mechanical bounce from a visual level, and has good odds of being revisited in coming trading sessions.

There is still no resolution to the poor all time high at 2169.75 from 7/20.

You can probably expect heavy volatility Wednesday around the release of the FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET.

The ES is now in a nine day trading range after rocketing higher nearly 200 points off the June Brexit lows.

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Another New All Time S&P 500 Futures High Made at 2172.50 Before Pit Session Open

After opening a few ticks below and testing to within a tick of the previous regular session’s close, the ES sold off back through Monday’s opening and the three distributions left from Friday’s pit session profile, one timeframing lower for the first 6 periods. One timeframing stopped in G period, leaving a poor F/G low.

overnight-session-all-time-highs

After balancing off the lows and forming a wide point of control at 2159.25 the market traded exactly to the single print from A period at 2161.25, filling it to the tick in J period. Late in M period price traded through the high of J, closing the single print and lower distribution.

market-profile-chart-split-view7-25-2016-all-time-high-ES

The point of control remained at 2159.25, prominently finishing the day there at 10 TPO’s wide.

Another new all time high for the S&P 500 emini futures was made in the overnight session at 2172.50. New all time highs that are made in the extended hours session have lower odds of lasting. In addition, there is a poor high from July 22 at 2169.25, and the pit session all time high from July 20 has poor structure at four TPO’s wide.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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