Pre FOMC Day Market Profile Recap

With neutral overnight inventory coming into the session, the ES opened within the previous day’s range on Tuesday. After looking above Monday’s high in A period, B opened slightly below it, looked a tick above, and returned back into Monday’s range. After forming an inside in B period, C busted through it to the downside (5 minute drop in one minute) with no apparent news to cause the sudden spike lower other than being the day before FOMC.

C accelerated lower through Monday’s range repairing the poor low, D created a weak low at just one tick from matching the July 21st low at 2153.75

pre-FOMC-Day-volatility-ES-July-27-2016

D reentered the previous range – with E accelerating higher, initially pausing at just one tick below the previous close, once again defining that short term, emotional traders were controlling the market. The E period closed the lower distribution.

Volatility calmed down, forming a small inside bar in G period with a widening POC developing at 2161.50

A delayed breakout lower in H stayed within value and range from the previous day’s regular session, and the market traded within balance the remainder of the session.

Although price traded outside of the previous day’s range in C/D period it did not get the outside day, as price traded back into and closed within the previous day’s range.

The near matching lows from 7/21 and 7/26 can be considered weak because of the mechanical bounce from a visual level, and has good odds of being revisited in coming trading sessions.

There is still no resolution to the poor all time high at 2169.75 from 7/20.

You can probably expect heavy volatility Wednesday around the release of the FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET.

The ES is now in a nine day trading range after rocketing higher nearly 200 points off the June Brexit lows.

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