Late Day Market Profile Spike before Brexit Vote

late day spike before brexit voteWith not even an 11 point range until the final 30 minutes, Thursday’s regular trading session was apparently dominated by short term and day traders awaiting the results of the upcoming historic Brexit vote.

A gap open saw price re-visit, but not gain acceptance, back into the previous day’s range in A and C periods. Value was clearly higher.

Thursday’s point of control, or fairest price, migrated higher in the final 30 minute trading period to 9 TPO wide at 1997 from the previous 8 wide at 1995.50. The breakout of the inside bar in L period created range extension above the early E & F period poor high.

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Calm before the upcoming Brexit Storm?

twelve-point-S&P-trading-range-within-overnight-session

Early trade Tuesday in ‘A’ period (the first half hour trading period on the above S&P chart) stopped exactly at the base of the spike from Monday, which also coincided with the overnight high and overnight session’s half-back level, very mechanical day and short term traders references. Price sold from there down to just a tick below the overnight session low, another very mechanical, visual trader’s reference.

Tuesday’s trading day was contained within the 12 point overnight range from Monday, forming a very prominent point of control at 2079.50. It is also another inside day, trading completely within the previous day’s range.

Being another inside day, possible trade scenarios (again, barring another gap open) for the next trading session would be for price to look outside of either end of balance and accelerate, or look outside and fail, returning within the balance. If look outside of balance and fails the destination trade is the opposite end of the balance, and potentially beyond. Any breakout of balance should have better odds of follow through if price first visits the very wide point of control from Tuesday at 2079.50 and then reverses.

There is also the possibility of price staying within balance, but with the upcoming Brexit vote that might be the lowest odds of the scenarios. Existing Home Sales and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee are also scheduled for 10:00 AM EST Wednesday, followed by the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM EST, each of which could cause volatility.

Calm before the brexit storm?

On Thursday, June 23 The United Kingdom will decide whether the U.K. will remain a part of the European Union. Polling results will be reported throughout Thursday’s U.S. trading day, with the official announcement expected to be released early Friday morning, June 24th.

Significant market activity is expected for later this week resulting from the Brexit vote.

More information on the upcoming Brexit referendum can be read here.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Gap open 25 points higher from previous close

25 point GAP higher from previous close

After gapping higher 25 points overnight and continuing with an 8 point climb higher after after the opening bell to 2092.50 , the ES failed to gain acceptance above the previous week’s high, broke out of an inside bar balance in D period and one timeframed lower for most of the remainder of the day, selling off into the close, but failing to fill Friday’s gap. Large gaps are seldom filled on the first day after they’re created. Value was clearly higher on the day.

Early trading references for Tuesday could be the base of the late day spike at 2080.75, and the 9 TPO wide POC at 2084.25. Acceptance above 2089.75 could target Monday’s high, then the previous poor high at 2094 from 6/10/16, followed by the unfilled gap above that at 2097.25.

On the downside, there is still a very prominent ‘naked’ point of control from Friday 2061.50.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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