Market Profile Graph for Thursday 1/21

January 21, 2016 Market Profile Graph

40+ point balancing day Thursday following Wednesday’s massive short covering rally after taking out the August lows. Thursday’s high at 1883.25 ‘cleaned up’ the poor rally high at 1882.25 left from Friday’s profile where major selling started.

Friday’s trade should also see continued volatility and wide range. With the massive overnight ranges recently it makes it impossible to to try to predict exacting references but we have to start somewhere. The obvious references are Thursday’s high and low – watching for a break out of balance, or breakout failure.

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Market Profile – January19 2016

January19, 2016 Market Profile Graph

Steady selling, following crude oil’s lead again, for 6 consecutive 30 minute periods had the ES one-timeframing lower from the third period, but could not get the outside day below Friday’s close. Short covering followed rallying up to just a single tick above Friday’s high, creating a weak rally high at 1882.25. Volatility remains high. Carry that information forward as it will probably be revisited. Monday’s wide point of control at 1974.25 is just two ticks above the regular pit session close. Acceptance above or below that level will probably be key, depending on where overnight trade takes us.

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TUESDAY JANUARY 12, 2016 S&P MARKET PROFILE RECAP

Yet another emotionally driven selloff in the ES Tuesday, with the S&P emini chart almost mirroring the crude futures. After a gap up opening, closing the gap, then climbing up to and through its overnight high by 3 points, the ES then again followed crude’s lead lower and plummeting down app. 35 points from the high. But as soon as the crude oil pit session closed the ES miraculously staged a 28 point short covering rally, and finally closed the session higher on the day at 1924.75. A reference for Wednesday is the rally high at 1934.75.

crude oil ES emini Market Profile Chart January 12 2016

The ES has stopped one time-framing down on the daily chart since the second trading day of the year. Is it just so inventory can rebalance and continue the intermediate downward trend, or is a reversal coming?

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